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Lightning Reliability Intelligence

Reliability monitoring for Lightning payments, routes, nodes, and alerts.

Optaimaze analyzes recent route snapshots to surface payment reliability, explainable route confidence, Node Trust Scores, and monitoring signals that trigger email or Nostr alerts when conditions change.

watching Risk: Moderate Stability: Strong Last updated: 9:00 PM

Current recommendation: ACINQ

Recommendation should be watched. ACINQ is currently leading with a 69/100 stability score, but short-term stability is strong.

Route Recommendation:
ACINQ is usable as a current recommendation, but stability is strong and it has only held for 9 of the last 12 snapshot(s). Continue collecting data before calling it highly reliable.
69
Stability Score

69/100

Based on dominance, volatility, winner changes, confidence trend, and current recommendation duration.

Payment Reliability Risk: Low Outcome: Very likely to succeed

90/100 payment reliability

Payment reliability is strong because route leadership changed 2 time(s) across the last 12 snapshots, with support from confidence is stable and route score volatility is low.

Payment Recommendation:
Payment reliability is strong. ACINQ appears suitable based on current route confidence and recent stability signals.
90
Payment Reliability

Very likely to succeed

Based on the current route candidate, recent route leadership, volatility, and snapshot history.

Why Payment Reliability?

Caution signals
  • route leadership changed 2 time(s) across the last 12 snapshots
Supportive signals
  • confidence is stable
  • route score volatility is low
  • ACINQ has strong short-term stability after 9 snapshot(s)
  • ACINQ is also the dominant recent node
Amount Sensitivity:
No payment amount provided, so reliability is based on route behavior only.
Monitoring Active Email: hello@optaimaze.com Last alert: Jul 30, 8:30 PM

Alerts watch reliability changes between checks.

The monitor compares the latest payment reliability, route status, leader, dominant node, and node trust state against the previous run. It sends only when a meaningful trigger clears severity and cooldown rules.

Alert triggers:
Payment risk changes, reliability drops, route status changes, leader changes, dominant node changes, winner-change spikes, and node trust level changes.
90
Alert Monitor

Checking normally

API status is available at /api/alert-status. A skip means no alert-worthy change was detected.

Dominant Node ACINQ
Dominance 91.67%
Current Duration 9/12
Stability Strength Strong
Confidence High
Current Score 97.48
Winner Changes 2
Volatility Low
Recent Changes 0
Previous Changes 2
Volatility Direction Steady
Volatility Delta -0.19

API Signals

Optaimaze exposes the same reliability layer through clean API routes for payment reliability, route confidence, node trust, and alert monitoring status.

/api/payment-reliability /api/route-confidence /api/route-insights /api/node-reliability /api/alert-status
Node Trust Intelligence

Most Reliable Nodes

Optaimaze scores nodes by historical dominance, winning consistency, confidence, volatility, and recent stability.

Reliable leader

ACINQ

90
Wins: 68
Dominance: 68%
Longest run: 33 snapshots
Stability: Strong
Trend: Improving
Dominance
78
Confidence
100
Volatility
90
Recent
92
Node trust is high because ACINQ is the current recommendation.
Developing signal

Kraken

45
Wins: 28
Dominance: 28%
Longest run: 8 snapshots
Stability: Strong
Trend: Steady
Dominance
28
Confidence
100
Volatility
100
Recent
0
Node trust is developing because Kraken has limited dominance at 28% of winning snapshots.
Low trust signal

bfx-lnd0

38
Wins: 4
Dominance: 4%
Longest run: 2 snapshots
Stability: Weak
Trend: Declining
Dominance
4
Confidence
100
Volatility
100
Recent
8
Node trust is low because bfx-lnd0 has limited dominance at 4% of winning snapshots.

Why This Status?

  • Route leadership changed 2 time(s) across the last 12 snapshots.
  • ACINQ is the dominant node with 91.67% of recent recommendations.
  • The current recommendation matches the dominant node in the analyzed window.
  • The current recommendation has held for 9 consecutive snapshot(s).
  • Short-term stability strength is strong.
  • Score volatility is low.
  • Confidence trend is stable.
  • Route score trend is stable.
  • Winner changes decreased in the recent half of the window (0 vs 2).

Top Alternates

Kraken
100%
bfx-lnd1
100%
bfx-lnd0
91.7%
block-iad-1
75%
1ML.com node ALPHA
25%

Recent Route History

Time Winner Score Confidence
21:00 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:56 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:48 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 99.36 High
20:40 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:32 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:24 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:16 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 99.36 High
20:08 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
20:00 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 99.36 High
19:56 bfx-lnd0
033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025
 97.46 High
19:48 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High
19:40 ACINQ
03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f
 97.48 High

Leadership Distribution

ACINQ
91.7%
bfx-lnd0
8.3%

Dominant node: ACINQ
Dominant strength: Very Strong
Stability strength: Strong
Confidence trend: Stable
Score trend: Stable
Score volatility: 0.82