Lightning Reliability Intelligence

Reliability monitoring for Lightning payments, routes, nodes, and alerts.

Optaimaze analyzes recent route snapshots to surface payment reliability, explainable route confidence, Node Trust Scores, and monitoring signals that trigger email or Nostr alerts when conditions change.

shifting Risk: High Stability: Weak Last updated: 6:40 PM

Current recommendation: ACINQ

Recommendation is shifting. The leading candidate changed 6 time(s) across the last 12 snapshots, with low score volatility, stable confidence, and weak short-term stability.

Route Recommendation:
Avoid over-relying on ACINQ as a single route candidate. Stability is weak, and leadership changed 6 time(s), so review alternates and continue monitoring before treating this route as stable.

Stability Score

37/100

Based on dominance, volatility, winner changes, confidence trend, and current recommendation duration.

Payment Reliability Risk: Moderate Outcome: Likely to succeed

70/100 payment reliability

Payment is likely to succeed, but route leadership changed 6 times across the last 12 snapshots, ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s), with support from confidence is stable and route score volatility is low.

Payment Recommendation:
Payment is likely to succeed, but continue monitoring route behavior before relying on ACINQ for repeated or high-value payments.

Payment Reliability

Likely to succeed

Based on the current route candidate, recent route leadership, volatility, and snapshot history.

Why Payment Reliability?

Caution signals

route leadership changed 6 times across the last 12 snapshots
ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s)
ACINQ is not the dominant recent node (bfx-lnd0)

Supportive signals

confidence is stable
route score volatility is low

Amount Sensitivity:
No payment amount provided, so reliability is based on route behavior only.

Monitoring Active Email: hello@optaimaze.com Last alert: Jun 15, 5:15 PM

Alerts watch reliability changes between checks.

The monitor compares the latest payment reliability, route status, leader, dominant node, and node trust state against the previous run. It sends only when a meaningful trigger clears severity and cooldown rules.

Alert triggers:
Payment risk changes, reliability drops, route status changes, leader changes, dominant node changes, winner-change spikes, and node trust level changes.

Alert Monitor

Checking normally

API status is available at /api/alert-status. A skip means no alert-worthy change was detected.

Dominant Node bfx-lnd0

Dominance 58.33%

Current Duration 1/12

Stability Strength Weak

Confidence High

Current Score 99.05

Winner Changes 6

Volatility Low

Recent Changes 4

Previous Changes 1

Volatility Direction Steady

Volatility Delta 0.27

API Signals

Optaimaze exposes the same reliability layer through clean API routes for payment reliability, route confidence, node trust, and alert monitoring status.

/api/payment-reliability /api/route-confidence /api/route-insights /api/node-reliability /api/alert-status

Node Trust Intelligence

Most Reliable Nodes

Optaimaze scores nodes by historical dominance, winning consistency, confidence, volatility, and recent stability.

Usable with monitoring

bfx-lnd0

Wins: 59
Dominance: 59%
Longest run: 8 snapshots
Stability: Strong
Trend: Declining

Dominance

Confidence

100

Volatility

Recent

Node trust is moderate because bfx-lnd0 is the dominant recent node.

Developing signal

ACINQ

Wins: 33
Dominance: 33%
Longest run: 4 snapshots
Stability: Moderate
Trend: Improving

Dominance

Confidence

100

Volatility

Recent

Node trust is developing because ACINQ is the current recommendation.

Low trust signal

Kraken

Wins: 6
Dominance: 6%
Longest run: 2 snapshots
Stability: Weak
Trend: Steady

Dominance

Confidence

100

Volatility

Recent

Node trust is low because Kraken has limited dominance at 6% of winning snapshots.

Why This Status?

Route leadership changed 6 time(s) across the last 12 snapshots.
bfx-lnd0 is the dominant node with 58.33% of recent recommendations.
The current recommendation does not match the dominant node, which may indicate a recent shift.
The current recommendation has held for 1 consecutive snapshot(s).
Short-term stability strength is weak.
Score volatility is low.
Confidence trend is stable.
Route score trend is stable.
Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (4 vs 1).

Top Alternates

Kraken

100%

bfx-lnd1

100%

block-iad-1

75%

ACINQ

58.3%

bfx-lnd0

41.7%

Recent Route History

Time	Winner	Score	Confidence
18:40	ACINQ 03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f	99.05	High
18:32	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	98.31	High
18:24	ACINQ 03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f	99.05	High
18:16	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	98.02	High
18:08	ACINQ 03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f	97.12	High
18:00	ACINQ 03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f	97.12	High
17:56	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	97.74	High
17:48	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	97.74	High
17:40	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	97.46	High
17:32	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	98.31	High
17:24	bfx-lnd0 033d8656219478701227199cbd6f670335c8d408a92ae88b962c49d4dc0e83e025	98.31	High
17:16	ACINQ 03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f	99.05	High

Leadership Distribution

bfx-lnd0

58.3%

ACINQ

41.7%

Dominant node: bfx-lnd0
Dominant strength: Moderate
Stability strength: Weak
Confidence trend: Stable
Score trend: Stable
Score volatility: 0.67