{
    "success": true,
    "generated_at": "2026-09-14T05:11:54+00:00",
    "payment_reliability": 70,
    "expected_outcome": "likely to succeed",
    "payment_risk_level": "moderate",
    "amount_sats": null,
    "amount_sensitivity": {
        "level": "not_provided",
        "score_adjustment": 0,
        "message": "No payment amount provided, so reliability is based on route behavior only."
    },
    "current_route_candidate": {
        "alias": "ACINQ",
        "node_id": "03864ef025fde8fb587d989186ce6a4a186895ee44a926bfc370e2c366597a3f8f",
        "route_score": 99.36,
        "structural_score": 99.36,
        "route_confidence": "high",
        "held_for_snapshots": 1,
        "stability_duration": 1,
        "stability_strength": "weak"
    },
    "dominant_node": {
        "alias": "bfx-lnd0",
        "appearances": 7,
        "dominance_rate_percent": 58.33,
        "dominance_rate": 58.33,
        "is_current_leader": false
    },
    "risk_factors": [
        "Route leadership is shifting across recent snapshots, so the current path may not remain reliable.",
        "Current route confidence risk is high before payment-size sensitivity is applied.",
        "Route leader changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
        "Current route candidate has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s).",
        "Current leader does not match the dominant recent node, which may indicate a fresh shift."
    ],
    "why": "Payment is likely to succeed, but route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots, ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s), with support from confidence is stable and route score volatility is low.",
    "why_reasons": [
        "route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots",
        "ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s)",
        "ACINQ is not the dominant recent node (bfx-lnd0)",
        "confidence is stable",
        "route score volatility is low"
    ],
    "explanation": {
        "summary": "Payment is likely to succeed, but route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots, ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s), with support from confidence is stable and route score volatility is low.",
        "primary_reason": "route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots",
        "supporting_reasons": [
            "route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots",
            "ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s)",
            "ACINQ is not the dominant recent node (bfx-lnd0)",
            "confidence is stable",
            "route score volatility is low"
        ],
        "caution_signals": [
            "route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots",
            "ACINQ has weak short-term stability after 1 snapshot(s)",
            "ACINQ is not the dominant recent node (bfx-lnd0)"
        ],
        "positive_signals": [
            "confidence is stable",
            "route score volatility is low"
        ],
        "amount_sensitivity": {
            "level": "not_provided",
            "score_adjustment": 0,
            "message": "No payment amount provided, so reliability is based on route behavior only."
        },
        "confidence_context": {
            "status": "shifting",
            "risk_level": "high",
            "confidence_score": 77,
            "structural_score": 99.36,
            "execution_score": 66,
            "stability_score": 38,
            "route_why": "Route leadership changed 5 time(s), and the current leader has only held for 1 snapshot(s), indicating weak short-term stability. Execution proxy is 66/100 and overall confidence is 77/100.",
            "route_explanation": {
                "summary": "ACINQ is shifting with high risk because Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                "primary_reason": "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                "supporting_reasons": [
                    "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                    "ACINQ does not match the dominant recent node bfx-lnd0.",
                    "Dominance is moderate at 58.33%, so leadership is not fully settled.",
                    "The current leader has weak short-term stability after only 1 snapshot(s).",
                    "Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (3 vs 2).",
                    "Route score volatility is low.",
                    "Confidence is stable across the analyzed window."
                ],
                "caution_signals": [
                    "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                    "ACINQ does not match the dominant recent node bfx-lnd0.",
                    "Dominance is moderate at 58.33%, so leadership is not fully settled.",
                    "The current leader has weak short-term stability after only 1 snapshot(s).",
                    "Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (3 vs 2)."
                ],
                "positive_signals": [
                    "Route score volatility is low.",
                    "Confidence is stable across the analyzed window."
                ],
                "movement": {
                    "recent_winner_changes": 3,
                    "previous_winner_changes": 2,
                    "winner_change_delta": 1,
                    "recent_score_volatility": 0.36,
                    "previous_score_volatility": 0.38,
                    "score_volatility_delta": -0.02,
                    "volatility_direction": "steady"
                },
                "scores": {
                    "confidence_score": 77,
                    "execution_score": 66
                }
            }
        }
    },
    "recommendation": "Payment is likely to succeed, but continue monitoring route behavior before relying on ACINQ for repeated or high-value payments.",
    "source_route_confidence": {
        "confidence_score": 77,
        "structural_score": 99.36,
        "execution_score": 66,
        "stability_score": 38,
        "status": "shifting",
        "risk_level": "high",
        "why": "Route leadership changed 5 time(s), and the current leader has only held for 1 snapshot(s), indicating weak short-term stability. Execution proxy is 66/100 and overall confidence is 77/100.",
        "explanation": {
            "summary": "ACINQ is shifting with high risk because Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
            "primary_reason": "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
            "supporting_reasons": [
                "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                "ACINQ does not match the dominant recent node bfx-lnd0.",
                "Dominance is moderate at 58.33%, so leadership is not fully settled.",
                "The current leader has weak short-term stability after only 1 snapshot(s).",
                "Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (3 vs 2).",
                "Route score volatility is low.",
                "Confidence is stable across the analyzed window."
            ],
            "caution_signals": [
                "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
                "ACINQ does not match the dominant recent node bfx-lnd0.",
                "Dominance is moderate at 58.33%, so leadership is not fully settled.",
                "The current leader has weak short-term stability after only 1 snapshot(s).",
                "Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (3 vs 2)."
            ],
            "positive_signals": [
                "Route score volatility is low.",
                "Confidence is stable across the analyzed window."
            ],
            "movement": {
                "recent_winner_changes": 3,
                "previous_winner_changes": 2,
                "winner_change_delta": 1,
                "recent_score_volatility": 0.36,
                "previous_score_volatility": 0.38,
                "score_volatility_delta": -0.02,
                "volatility_direction": "steady"
            },
            "scores": {
                "confidence_score": 77,
                "execution_score": 66
            }
        },
        "why_reasons": [
            "Route leadership changed 5 times across the last 12 snapshots.",
            "ACINQ does not match the dominant recent node bfx-lnd0.",
            "Dominance is moderate at 58.33%, so leadership is not fully settled.",
            "The current leader has weak short-term stability after only 1 snapshot(s).",
            "Winner changes increased in the recent half of the window (3 vs 2).",
            "Route score volatility is low.",
            "Confidence is stable across the analyzed window."
        ],
        "recommendation": "Do not over-rely on ACINQ as a single route candidate yet. Stability is weak, execution proxy is 66/100, and leadership changed 5 time(s). Review alternates and monitor whether leadership stabilizes.",
        "last_updated": "2026-09-14 05:08:02"
    },
    "cache": {
        "hit": false,
        "ttl_seconds": 90
    },
    "api": {
        "name": "payment-reliability",
        "version": "1"
    }
}